Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 23.506075 25.666787 28.022911 30.798372 33.998466 37.596993 41.984695
2025-08-03 19.740650 22.570232 25.879387 30.092408 35.399039 41.983520 50.975835
2025-08-10 17.291289 20.456073 24.358723 29.642274 36.804244 46.492619 61.210271
2025-08-17 15.664318 19.044004 23.395268 29.599090 38.567809 51.705331 73.861821
2025-08-24 14.323758 17.792581 22.415056 29.291980 39.793866 56.305643 87.044194
2025-08-31 13.266585 16.777984 21.595352 29.031079 40.955336 60.976730 102.051517
2025-09-07 12.391752 15.912662 20.865278 28.760587 41.991795 65.613953 118.960708
2025-09-14 11.687831 15.215033 20.289604 28.622984 43.179806 70.772191 139.580687
2025-09-21 11.026687 14.519136 19.640048 28.266019 43.891487 75.158561 160.896286
2025-09-28 10.792367 14.423165 19.881226 29.392464 47.499798 86.631991 210.620332
2025-10-05 10.290779 13.886165 19.379905 29.172164 48.457634 92.470706 248.166365
2025-10-12 9.865314 13.434376 18.973434 29.064526 49.613875 99.183012 296.823711
2025-10-19 9.547694 13.136974 18.806914 29.400055 51.837623 109.744654 380.168063
2025-10-26 9.163524 12.711639 18.395878 29.233219 52.941838 117.748902 468.254254
2025-11-02 8.803363 12.302924 17.981857 29.013932 53.893813 125.809537 580.269014
2025-11-09 8.517874 11.997221 17.720606 29.064291 55.508824 136.913301 761.394351
2025-11-16 8.206429 11.631455 17.327801 28.804682 56.307913 145.683168 971.459810
2025-11-23 7.922274 11.295512 16.964505 28.566961 57.126083 155.106335 1270.202802
2025-11-30 7.656142 10.976034 16.609558 28.309979 57.852280 164.733121 1697.367069
2025-12-07 7.426260 10.706030 16.326726 28.178619 58.910731 176.657658 2430.292463
2025-12-14 7.182376 10.401047 15.961246 27.831070 59.293844 185.868463 3419.050193
2025-12-21 7.142120 10.440393 16.234534 28.932444 64.233735 222.875314 10165.118124
2025-12-28 6.938991 10.188893 15.944047 28.717450 65.073786 238.089497 22437.707921